Friday, April 21, 2006

The End of the World Probably Began in August 1990

The End of the World Probably Began in August 1990


Whenever I recall the recent history of the world, I wonder how strange it is that the world has now a very concerned person, former president of Iraq Saddam Hussein, in custody in Baghdad.

Mr. Saddam Hussein’s army invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990. Then the Persian Gulf War erupted. The war had a significant influence on Mr. Usāma bin Lādin.

As if inevitably due to his career and religion, Mr. Usāma bin Lādin at last ordered attacks on New York and Washington D.C. using commercial jet planes in September 2001.

And, the rest of the history up to now is well known.
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Mr. Saddam Hussein’s decision in August 1990 to invade Kuwait, after the lengthy Iraqi-Iranian War, triggered this chain reaction of international incidents eventually leading to the current, extraordinary hike of oil prices.

Mr. Saddam Hussein’s military adventure took a form of solving a territorial dispute with an underlying issue of oil (fields).

Did the issue of oil and money it generates really mangle his judgment on international situations?

Why, how, and when did then president of Iraq Saddam Hussein reach the conclusion, at the deepest level of mind, that his government had to absorb the neighboring country by force are really interesting. And everybody under any influence of the Gulf War, subsequent terror attacks and the War on Terror including the Iraq War, and higher oil prices had better be interested in them.
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It is said that oil reserves will be depleted in 50 years; natural gas in 65 years; uranium in 70 years, coal in 250 years, and plutonium available for fuel in fast breeder reactors in 4500 years.

Although they say that they will complete preparation of a nuclear fusion reactor for commercial power generation around 2050, it is very doubtful.

What’s more, we still need crude oils not only as natural resources for power generation but also as materials for production of goods.
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No matter how indirectly it did, Mr. Saddam Hussein’s decision to resort to military power in August 1990 led to 9/11 terrorist attacks on the U.S. in 2001 through its influence on some Arabs, but it might have still more significant implication even Mr. Saddam Hussein did not realize at the moment of the decision.
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When we lose all the oil reserves on the earth, it may be called the End of the World, for our civilization depends on oil and iron. Then, the end may be terribly within 50 year range.

Lower the level of our living standard to one tenth of the current one, and we may buy time, for example 500 years, for our children’s descendants to cope with the fate.

“DO NOT BE AFRAID”