(Around Tokyo; Tokyo Tower far right)Before 2012 Presidential Election Speculation
This morning The Asahi Shimbun Newspaper of Japan reported that 79% of the Japanese people are glad to hear Mr. Obama’s victory while 4% are disappointed.
And, those who expect improvement of the relationship between Japan and the United States under the Obama Administration account for 41% against 25% of the all, interviewed by phone for this survey, who do not expect such improvement.
Specifically the outcome of the 2008 Presidential Election is as follows:
.………………………Popular Vote………….Percentage
Obama…………………65,974,960……………52.6%
McCain…………………57,775,796……………46.1%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_2008
The gap is about eight million votes. Or, four million voters have directly influenced the outcome, since Mr. Obama with four million votes less should have been defeated by Mr. McCain with four million votes more.
Yet, who are they that constitute these four million voters? At least they must be poor. They must be found among the working poor if they are pious.
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The working-poor rate—the ratio of the working poor to all individuals in the labor force for at least 27 weeks—was 5.3 percent, unchanged from the rate reported in 2002….
Although roughly 7 in every 10 of the working poor were white workers, black and Hispanic or Latino workers continued to be more than twice as likely as their white counter-parts to be among the working poor.
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpswp2003.pdf
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Of total 124 million voters, we can assume due to the recent recession in the U.S., the working poor account for 8%, meaning 10 million working-poor voters.
Of total 10 million working-poor voters, we can assume due to the recent recession in the U.S., the European-American working poor account for 8%, meaning eight million European American working poor voters.
I suppose half of them can be regarded as those who have voted for Mr. Obama this time though they had voted for Mr. George W. Bush before.
These four million European-American working poor must have decided the case.
However, the total labor force in the U.S. is now estimated to be 145 million or so, those key voters only account for 2.8% or 3%.
Adding 3% more voters to Mr. Obama and subtracting 3% voters from Mr. McCain makes the gap 6%, which reflects the actual outcome of Mr. Obama with 52.6% and Mr. McCain with 46.1%.
Therefore, it is 3% of the total American workers, mostly poor European-American workers, that have made the dream come true for African Americans.
(As the Hispanics labor force is one sixth or one seventh of that of the European-Americans, we can so far focus on the European-American working poor.)
In summary, a drastic change can happen in society if only three percent of its members have decisively changed their views and taken an appropriate action accordingly, even if so driven by an imminent need to get rid of poverty.
Yet, we can check another factor, for example, Rockefellers.
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Senator Jay Rockefeller Endorses Obama
By Sam Graham-Felsen - Feb 29th, 2008 at 2:46 pm EST
CHICAGO, IL – Today, Senator Jay Rockefeller, the Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, endorsed Barack Obama for president, citing his judgment on the Iraq war and national security issues, and calling him the right candidate to lead our country during a time of instability at home and abroad….
Senator Obama said, “Senator Rockefeller’s leadership in the Senate has strengthened our national security and advanced economic opportunity, and I am honored to have his support. Nobody understands the unconventional threats of the 21st century better than Jay Rockefeller, and I look forward to partnering with him as President to strengthen our intelligence community and protect our homeland. Together, we will work to reclaim the American Dream for working families at home, and to restore our security and standing abroad.”
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/gGgC25
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Further we have to check how American Judaists voted.
.………………………Obama………McCain
All Protestants............45%.....54%
Catholics..................54%.....45%
Jewish..................78%.....21%
Church goers...............43%.....55%
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/exit-polls.html
It is remarkable. American Judaists are the strongest popularity base for Mr. Obama.
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Obama Makes Nice With Israel Leaders
November 7th, 2008 by Fred Stopsky
During the recent presidential campaign, Republicans attempted to portray Barack Obama as hostile to Israel and that if elected it would mean the end of the Jewish state….
The very Jewish organizations who spread their filthy lies about Obama as an “enemy of Israel,” and now shouting praise over his selection of Rep. Rahm Emanuel as his chief of staff. William Daroff of the United Jewish Communities, which was not that fond of Obama, said “Rep. Emanuel is among the sharpest political tacticians and policy makers that is on the scene in Washington D.C.”
Hopefully, supporters of Israel understand Obama seeks a peace agreement that meets the needs of all parties, not just those of Israel.
http://theimpudentobserver.com/world-news/obama-makes-nice-with-israel-leaders/
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It sounds like there is also a wide gap between rich American Judaists and poor American Judaists.
However, what is striking is that 79% of the Japanese people support Mr. Obama and 78% of the American Judaists support Mr. Obama.
Inevitably, if President Mr. Barack Obama should lose support from the Japanese people and the American Judaists, there would be no victory for him in 2012, since President Mr. George W. Bush won in 2004 by maintaining his friendship with then Japanese Prime Minister Mr. Jyunichiro Koizumi.
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That is all for today.
It must not have been so hard to predict the outcome of the 2008 Presidential Election based on analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election.
Now how do you foresee the result of the 2012 Presidential Election?
Anyway it is 3% of the total force that can bring about a large-scale change, if looking superficial so far.
I mean you had better increase your donation to the poor by 3%.
(You know it is the debacle of Wall Street which surfaced this September that has had a critically religious influence on the 2008 Presidential Election, since Mr. McCain was about to drive a sea change then with Ms. Palin’s emergence. But, EEE Reporter did not like Lehman Brothers as you must have suspected due to a certain Tokyo TV-station acquisition attempt, though so badly failed several years ago. Anyway, let’s say "Sea Change" for 2012.
http://www.fukuchan.ac/music/folk/overcome.html )
Rev 11:11 And after three days and an half the spirit of life from God entered into them, and they stood upon their feet; and great fear fell upon them which saw them.
Rev 11:12 And they heard a great voice from heaven saying unto them, Come up hither. And they ascended up to heaven in a cloud; and their enemies beheld them.
Rev 11:13 And the same hour was there a great earthquake, and the tenth part of the city fell, and in the earthquake were slain of men seven thousand: and the remnant were affrighted, and gave glory to the God of heaven.