"Not to Call the Righteous"
(Patterns of Change before Catastrophe)
Mrs. Hillary Clinton with civility visited the great Meiji Shrine in Tokyo this morning.
However I will discuss the "Patterns of Change before Catastrophe," since we face a kind of economic crisis together over the Pacific Ocean.
The Fibonacci numbers are used in technical forecasts of stock indexes, since it is related to a golden section ratio.
( http://www.kabudream.com/technical/fibonacci.html)
http://www.research.att.com/~njas/sequences/A000045
But there are other mathematical functions that present a drastic increase of a value representing a certain phenomena, if not simple magnification such as “10 time” or “100 times.”
The first seven values of Y = Exp(X), Y = 2**X, and Y= Fibonacci(X) are as follows:
X.....Exp(X).....2**X.....Fibonacci(X)
1.....2.72.....2......1
2.....7.39.....4......2
3.....20.1.....8......3
4.....55.0.....16.....5
5.....148.4.....32......8
6.....403.4.....64......13
7.....1096.6.....128......21
Then we can plot them on a figure.
As you can see the above three functions produce drastically large numbers if the input value X exceeds a certain value for each.
For Y = Exp(X), it is around X=4.
For Y = 2**X, it is around X=6.
For Y = Fibonacci(X), X=10.
Also in the figure, there are two red lines: Y = 100X and Y = 10X.
Y = 100 X: The output value is 100 times larger than an input value.
Y = 10X: The output value is 10 times larger than an input value.
Of course, if an output is more than 100 times an input, it cannot be a normal world.
But, if an output is less than 10 times an input, it can be a normal world, though the magnification must be between 0.5 and 1.5 hopefully.
So, let’s check the following figure with the above notion in mind.
(Click to enlarge.)If an incident is going to change 10 times larger through four steps, its trend might be following Y = Exp(X).
If an incident is going to change 10 times larger through six steps, its trend might be following Y = 2**X.
If an incident is going to change 10 times larger through 10 steps, its trend might be following Y = Fibonacci(X).
So, for example, let’s refer to the figure showing the crude-oil price change between 1983 and 2008.
(Click to enlarge.)It looks like as if having adapted itself to Fibonacci(X), 2**X, and finally Exp(X) as time goes by.
In the real world, if GDP of a nation drops 10% in a year, it is a big recession.
In the real world, if GDP of a nation increases by 10% in a year, it is a big boom.
It means the economic change is expected to be between 0.9 times and 1.1 times a previous performance value.
The magnification between 2 to 10 times may be observed sometimes in the human society and the nature around it.
But, if it gets into a domain of “10 times more,” it is a catastrophe.
Nonetheless, there is a domain of “100 times more” which is nothing but a miracle, favorably or disadvantageously for mankind.
Now, you can apply this way of thinking and this fundamental approach to your personal matters, or problems in your community and country, or otherwise the global economy or environment.
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You can move easily ten times faster or 100 times faster, which is very common in modern life.
That is why the Fibonacci series can apply to the design of a jet plane.
(Pourquoi ne pas vous recevoir sur mon bi-moteur "New Zero?"
However, sands on the beaches of the Pacific Ocean may still hold fallen fighters deep under the surface being washed by waves unlimited times.
http://www.fukuchan.ac/music/latin/sunanikieta.html )
Mar 2:17 When Jesus heard it, he saith unto them, They that are whole have no need of the physician, but they that are sick: I came not to call the righteous, but sinners to repentance.