SECTION I: Shock and Awe for P.M. Naoto Kan
In these eight years, a national election has been conducted six times or in six years as either an Upper-House election (for 121 among 242 seats) or a Lower-House election (for all 480 seats) in Japan.
But, the latest Upper-House election is the most difficult one to predict its outcomes. It was very different from the 2009 Lower-House election where the regime change occurred in Japan as the socialistic DPJ took over from the capitalism-oriented LDP.
One month before the Upper-House election slated to conduct on July 11, 2010, the mainstream weekly magazine Shukan Asahi predicted election results as follows:
Democratic Party of Japan - 54 seats
Liberal Democratic Party - 39 seats
The real outcome:
Democratic Party of Japan - 44 seats
Liberal Democratic Party - 51 seats
Accordingly, the ruling DPJ and Prime Minister Mr. Naoto Kan came to have a sense of crisis, while the conservative opposition LDP has regained confidence somewhat.
Last year, when the Lower House election resulted in the regime change, all the media including The Shukan Asahi predicted correctly the victory of the DPJ even one month before. But, they all failed in foreseeing the victory of the LDP.
But, the real reason for P.M. Mr. Kan's disappointment is that the LDP and spinoffs from the LDP garnered votes more than expected.
The election was competed virtually between the ruling camp with the DPJ and the People's New Party and the ex-LDP camp with the LDP, the Your Party and other two spinoffs.
The ruling DPJ's rival is now not only the LDP alone but the LDP and the Your Party plus other spioffs from the LDP.
In this context, it can be seen in the above figure how gravely P.M. Mr. Naoto Kan was damaged.
It is also clear that as the LDP was very unpopular in the 2003 and 2004 elections, then P.M. Mr. Junichiro Koizumi took a bold initiative in resolving the Lower House for election in 2005 with his own agenda of the postal reform. Eventually, Mr. Koizumi won the wager in a great margin.
This time, P.M. Mr. Naoto Kan also took a bold initiative addressing a new agenda of a 5% increase of a consumption tax rate one month before the voting day only to lose the election. His tactics is still a kind of mystery since it was a commonsense not to raise a tax issue before any election. P.M. Mr. Kan looks like having trusted those forecasts of the election by the media which all suggested his victory in a big margin.
Anyway, the above figure tells the truth of the state of the political community in Japan.
The LDP is not trusted, but the conservative camp with the LDP, the Your Party, and other spinoffs are expected to play a some important role under the ruling by pro-Chinese, pro-North Korean, and pro-labor unions DPJ.
It is so, since the regime change occurred last summer mostly because millions of Japanese people are critically influenced by irresponsible management of the pension fund schemes by the LDP-centric government that had continued for almost half a century till August 2009.
Votes Won by the Pro-Chinese DPJ Camp and Pro-American LDP Camp:
(Proportional-Representation Constituency)
Year....DPJ (+PNP)....LDP (+ ex-LDPs)...Upper/Lower House
------------------------------------------
2003....22,095,636....20,660,185...L
2004....21,137,457....16,797,686...U
2005....22,219,498....25,887,798...L
2007....24,525,456....16,544,671...U
2009....31,064,566....18,810,217...L
2010....19,450,175....24,419,922...U
The DPJ and the PNP could preserve only 60% of votes having been directed to them a year ago.
More specifically,
Year....DPJ+....LDP+....Prime Minister
------------------------------------------
2003....22....21...Koizumi (LDP)
2004....21....17...Koizumi (LDP)
2005....22....26...Koizumi (LDP)
2007....25....17...Abe (LDP)
2009....31....19...Aso (LDP)
2010....19....24...Kan (DPJ)
[votes in millions]
Note that during the reign of P.M. Mr. Junichiro Koizumi, the pension fund management scandal did not surface.
It was before the 2007 Upper House election during premiership of P.M. Mr. Shinzo Abe that the scandal was publicly known. Hundreds of millions of pension cases had been wrongly recorded and managed manually or in computers for decades. So, the media suddenly started to widely report the fact as lawmaker Mr. Akira Nagatsuma of the DPJ, now a state minister, discovered and made it open in the parliament.
Apart from this issue, the most significant controversy was about pro-American or pro-Chinese diplomatic sentiments among political parties, since it is also related to an underlying philosophy of economy.
SECTION II: 2011 General Election?
(to be continued...)
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Joh 7:27 Howbeit we know this man whence he is: but when Christ cometh, no man knoweth whence he is.
Joh 7:28 Then cried Jesus in the temple as he taught, saying, Ye both know me, and ye know whence I am: and I am not come of myself, but he that sent me is true, whom ye know not.
Joh 7:29 But I know him: for I am from him, and he hath sent me.
Joh 7:30 Then they sought to take him: but no man laid hands on him, because his hour was not yet come.