Forecast of Great Earthquake
A very interesting study was made public in terms of prediction of a big earthquake:
Atmosphere Above Japan Heated Rapidly Before M9 Earthquake
Infrared emissions above the epicenter increased dramatically in the days before the devastating earthquake in Japan, say scientists.
Last year, we looked at some fascinating data from the DEMETER spacecraft showing a significant increase in ultra-low frequency radio signals before the magnitude 7 Haiti earthquake in January 2010
Today, Dimitar Ouzounov at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre in Maryland and a few buddies present the data from the Great Tohoku earthquake which devastated Japan on 11 March. Their results, although preliminary, are eye-opening.
They say that before the M9 earthquake, the total electron content of the ionosphere increased dramatically over the epicentre, reaching a maximum three days before the quake struck.
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The Japan earthquake is the largest to have struck the island in modern times and will certainly turn out to be among the best studied. If good evidence of this relationship doesn't emerge from this data, other opportunities will be few and far between.
http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/26773/
In Japan, too, many scientists are engaged in study on emission of electromagnetic wave from rocks being crushed. Some mechanisms are known that induces electromagnetic wave. But, the state of rocks deep underground is complicated. No clear and universal laws are yet to be formulated for the phenomenon of electromagnetic wave emission before occurrence of a great earthquake.
What I want to point to is concentration of force. There is a way to measure distribution of mass and intensity of electromagnetic wave radiation. But, there is no effective way to measure concentration of force, though pressure and temperature can represent it. However the point at issue is direct measurement of concentration of force is more effective than indirect measurement of electromagnetic wave generated due to crush of rocks which is triggered by concentration of force.
From a depth in the ground, strong electromagnetic wave can be issued to the outer space. But, pressure and temperature deep underground cannot reach the surface of the ground easily. So, to monitor the concentration of force a more active method should be adopted.
Put simply, when two great masses of underground rocks or part of the continental plates push and press each other before big crush, not so strong electromagnetic wave must be emitted but temperature on the friction surface of the two masses should increase and concentration of underground material should increase significantly. So, continuous observation of the temperature and the mass concentration should allow for forecast of a large scale earthquake.
There can be a few practical methods to measure them.
(To be continued...)
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Today in Tokyo though no earthquake but rain:
It is hard to say which is better for Japan to have more foreigners or less foreigners on its soil. Some Japanese do not like to see Chinese expanding their presence in Japan or American military bases holding vast areas.
But one thing sure is that it is impossible to expect foreigners to face, stand, and address the challenge of a possible great earthquake around Tokyo and fear of potential radioactive contamination.
Yet, this challenge will give new form to the Japanese people, making them all the more unique in the world.
Anyway, in the cold rain of May, I came back from Tokyo to see a TV news show that featured how three million commuters were trapped in Tokyo office districts over the night of March 11, 2011, in the wake of the great earthquake, since all the railroad systems were halted due to the aftermath of the great seismic tremor.