(Around Tokyo, near the northwest edge of the Kanto Plain, Japan)A SCENARIO OF ECONOMIC ARMAGEDDON
When countries start to try to avoid being victimized by the shadow of economic Armageddon, I am afraid, a real economic Armageddon begins.
Conversely, if they are determined to be a victim rather than a victimizer so as not to make others victims, the real economic Armageddon can be avoided, which I am sure of.
SECTION I: DOLLAR DECLINING
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Stocks Love A Strong Dollar
If you're not with me on the bullish dollar stance yet, but are invested in equities, you need to reconsider. Despite conventional wisdom, a weak dollar is NOT beneficial to the stock market. And here's the proof from the Bespoke Investment Group:
"Since 1967, the dollar has had four up cycles and five down cycles. The average return of the S&P 500 during the four up cycles is a gain of 86.6%, which is over five times the average return of 16.4% during dollar declines."
So if you want your stocks to go up (by a wide margin), history shows you should also want the dollar to go up…”
http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2008/March/the-end-of-the-weak-dollar.html
“The American dollar has been declining in value against the euro and several other currencies since 2002, and its devaluation has only accelerated in 2007-08. The dollar lost about 15 percent of its value against the euro in the 12 months ended April 2008.”
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/c/currency/dollar/index.html?8qa&scp=1-spot&sq=dollar+&st=nyt
“The dollar has fallen nearly 12 percent against the yen and 6 percent against the euro this year. On Wednesday, the dollar traded at 100 yen, a bit stronger than recent 13-year lows. One euro was at $1.5815, slightly below a record high.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/27/business/worldbusiness/27dollar.html
“The dollar hit a three-year low against the yen Friday and is trading at a near all-time low against the euro. And if the Fed keeps slashing interest rates to prop up the economy, it risks further weakening the dollar. ”
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/10/markets/morningbuzz/index.htm?postversion=2008031011
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In 2001, the dollar accounted for 73% of the world’s total foreign exchange reserves.
In 2007, the dollar accounted for 64%.
Players in the global money market are hedging their assets using types of money other than the dollar.
And there is other argument in the Council on Foreign Relations, ominous for a future trend:
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American investors have lately been pouring money into foreign bond funds at a record rate.
http://www.cfr.org/publication/16094/how_the_rise_of_the_euro_threatens_americas_dominance.html?breadcrumb=%2Fissue%2F7%2Feconomic_development
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SECTION II: US TREASURY BOND OWNERS
http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt
The total value of US Treasury bonds held by foreign countries and financial institutes is about $2,520 billion or $2.5 trillion.
Japan and China combined ownes 40% of all, though quality and historical performance of each economy is so different in addition to each contribution to the global peace, as is being proven by the Great Sichuan Earthquake that occurred near the Tibet region.
(Will China sell US Treasury bonds in a large quantity to finance the reconstruction in the earthquake-hit provinces?)
SECTION III: A NIGHTMARE
You can add the CO2 Conspiracy as other factor that makes the scenario more complicated.
But essentially, the issue is that mankind is increasing the amount of money to the extent it cannot control it as I once presented the following figure.
Mankind is increasing the amount of money to the extent it cannot control the violent nature of Mammon as the above figure shows.
Indeed, $15,000 billion dollars mean 15 trillion dollars which however must be globally distributed equally as $2500 per person, since the total population on the earth is six billion.
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It is truly deplorable that murder cases are yet to become a thing of the past, even in Japan. And most of victims in televised cases are young women.
( http://news.tbs.co.jp/20080601/newseye/tbs_newseye3866079.html )
People have come to think of the meaning and value of life less and less, while they are being brainwashed by the money economy more and more.
Human life looks nothing when a man is so badly driven by desire for money which can buy entertainment, say, in Hollywood and Las Vegas.
And a money-oriented society never teaches the need to respect human life, since it neglects a right of life and existence of poor people.
It is one of the gravest sins of the money economy to brainwash ordinary people to have a big desire for money and lose respect for other human beings, which then inevitably could be one of decisive factors in Armageddon.
(As for the global warming, we have to use the term “Environment Disruption” instead of CO2, since even a fire in a city can disrupt the nature.
And, a warning can be given not only in New York but also in Los Angeles.
[A huge fire broke out on the back lot of Universal City today, destroying several sound stages and valuable Hollywood memorabilia (LA Times).]”
Anyway, it may be good to have an image of the nature so darling, such as coral reefs critically white under the tropical blue sky playfully producing three or more huge shining thunderheads in the South Pacific so far…
http://ongakukan.music.coocan.jp/musicstudio/3-sa/mshiroisangosyo.html [青春音楽館])
Mat 6:1 Take heed that ye do not your alms before men, to be seen of them: otherwise ye have no reward of your Father which is in heaven.
Mat 6:2 Therefore when thou doest thine alms, do not sound a trumpet before thee, as the hypocrites do in the synagogues and in the streets, that they may have glory of men. Verily I say unto you, They have their reward.
Mat 6:3 But when thou doest alms, let not thy left hand know what thy right hand doeth:
Mat 6:4 That thine alms may be in secret: and thy Father which seeth in secret himself shall reward thee openly.