(After Floods, Japan)EEE ESTIMATION: MAX $2.4 TRILLION LOSS
The latest debacle in Wall Street might decisively influence the U.S. Presidential Election.
At least, I suppose, the Clintons will lose their influential position.
Mr. McCain is not a type of Wall Street guys but Mr. Obama can be.
Yet, tax reduction might be needed for poor house owners all the more than rich people who will surely keep their houses despite this turmoil in Wall Street.
You may find a drastic change in popularity ratings for both the parties after Sept. 15. 2008, since it can be comparable to the 9/11 Terror in terms of the scale of financial influence, no matter how great speech the Presidential candidates would deliver.
SECTION I: Profligacy in Tokyo and Crash in New York
Yes, in Japan, too, the media were astonished to hear the news from Wall Street as I observed last night.
Who expected, before Sept.11, 2008, that Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch like two gigantic towers would fall at the same time so suddenly?
From a viewpoint of followers of Jesus Christ, any companies in Wall Street behaving like the Mafia are anti-Christ.
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In New York, on September 15, 2008, shortly before 1 a.m., Lehman Brothers Holdings announced it would file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, although its subsidiaries will continue to operate as normal.[46] The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) suspended Lehman's Australian subsidiary as a market participant however, after clearing-houses terminated their contracts with the firm.[47]
Lehman Brothers (LEH) shares tumbled 80% in U.S. pre-open trade.[48][49] The Dow Jones closed down 500 points on September 15, the largest drop since the days following the attacks on September 11, 2001.[50] The conditions on Lehman's trading floors that day appeared grim, a third of the sales force were absent and those that did come had brought their resumés, along with pizza, beer and tequila.[51]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehman_Brothers
On Wednesday, the prestigious securities firm announced a quarterly loss of nearly $4 billion, much more than investors had been expecting.
That's after a Korean bank said Wednesday morning that it had ended talks about buying a stake in Lehman….
from The Associated Press
Banks were in tense talks to create a pool of money worth up to $100 billion to lend troubled financial companies, the official said on condition of anonymity because the discussions were ongoing…
Barclays and Bank of America were considered front-runners to buy Lehman, which is foundering under the weight of $60 billion in soured real estate holdings….
The deal was tripping on the potential buyers' insistence that they receive the same kind of help that Bear Stearns Cos. got last March when JPMorgan Chase & Co. bought the securities firm with a $29 billion Fed-backed loan.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has said the government will not help close a Lehman deal, and it was clear late Sunday he was not budging….
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94449416&ft=1&f=1006
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In Tokyo, young Americans and British working in subsidiaries of foreign businesses, such as Lehman Brothers or Merrill Lynch, are said to be behaving like super-rich men, approaching to and cajoling young, innocent, good-looking Japanese women with an intention to treat them like whores or prostitutes.
In fact, there are some books and reports published on their immoral behaviors in Tokyo.
And, finally, their sources of wealth have been hit hard in New York probably by the Angel of Revelation.
If those young Americans and British working in subsidiaries of Wall Street companies had behaved well in Tokyo, I might have felt more sympathy for those financial sector workers.
SECTION II: ANALYSIS PRODUCING $2.4 TRILLION
There is a very useful Internet site in Japan reporting on the housing industry of major countries.
According to their report:
- In terms of the size of the housing market, the U.S. is No.1 and Japan is No.2 among developed countries.
- Till the middle of 1990’s, the number of houses newly built in the U.S. had been the same as that in Japan.
- However, since 2000, the growth of the housing market in the U.S. has been far beyond expectation with 2 million houses newly built and 6 million existing homes in circulation in 2004.
( http://www.reform-apple.com/html/inport/import-2005.10.html )
Then, in these five years 10 million houses must be newly built in the U.S.
If the half of owners of them, namely 5 million people, cannot meet their liabilities and the average amount of the default is 300,000 dollars including credit capability, the total default amount will be 1.5 trillion dollars.
In addition, if one sixths of existing-house owners, namely 1 million people, fail to pay their loans and the average amount of the default is 100,000 dollars including credit capability, the total default amount will be 100 billion dollars.
Therefore, the grand sum of the whole housing market crisis can reach 1.6 trillion dollars including credit capability.
If it is leveraged through securitization and a multiplier is 1.5, the expected loss can be $2.4 trillion.
I think this $2.4 trillion is the largest amount ever estimated since the news on the subprime loan crisis started to circulate in the general public in these quarters.
SECTION III: IMPLICATIONS
Conclusion is crystal clear: the anger of God upon Wall Street.
Yet, we have to check related figures of U.S. economy to comprehend situations:
GDP (PPP)……$13.81 trillion (2007)
Exports……. $1.149 trillion f.o.b. (2007 est.)
Imports……. $1.985 trillion c.i.f. (2007 est.)
Gross External Debts….. $13.77 trillion (30 June 2008)
Public debt…. $9.67 trillion (September 2008)
Revenues……$2.568 trillion (2007)
Expenses….. $2.896 trillion (2007)
So, now you know the expected maximum scale of the negative influence on U.S. economy, $2.4 trillion, is not a matter of nonsense, since it matches one sixth of U.S. GDP.
Yet, the real possible crisis is that failure in derivative transactions will erode the net assets of U.S. citizens, since they are now getting closer to $200 trillion.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States
On the other hand, poor people are so many in the number:
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According to UNICEF, 30,000 children die each day due to poverty. For the 1.9 billion children from the developing world, there are 640 million without adequate shelter, 400 million with no access to safe water, and 270 million with no access to health services.
http://www.gfwc.org/content_747_page2.cfm
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If you try to save the world by giving $10,000 to each of 640 million poor people without adequate shelter in the world, you just need $6.4 trillion.
I mean if all the American home buyers and owners give up their expenses and credit capability related to their possession of homes and houses, still they lack $4 trillion to save the whole world following the wish of the God Almighty. To fulfill it, you have to still transfer one third of U.S. GDP to this holy project.
In summary, the U.S. cannot save the world with its financial power alone.
You have to turn to the real power existing somewhere on this planet capable of addressing the issue of saving the world.
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That is why I am telling you that if your friend has become so rich in connection with Wall Street and you are still his or her friend, the God will not like you.
Tell him or her to leave Wall Street if he or she wants to be still your friend.
You may, indeed, lose a rich friend, being rich for the time being, but you will not lose whatever little favor you have now from the God, in my humble opinion.
So, do not let me be misunderstood.
I am not such a man as would succumb to temptation of amenity and comfort the Devil provides in a big and gorgeous house.
But, if you do not succumb to temptation of amenity and comfort the Devil provides in a big and gorgeous house, I don’t mind if you live there, since it is what the Pope is expected to do in the house of Emperor in Rome.
(If they cannot be part of New York, they can still sing their way not along with Devil’s tune:
http://www.fukuchan.ac/music/popular/myway.html)
Act 9:16 For I will shew him how great things he must suffer for my name's sake.
Act 9:17 And Ananias went his way, and entered into the house; and putting his hands on him said, Brother Saul, the Lord, even Jesus, that appeared unto thee in the way as thou camest, hath sent me, that thou mightest receive thy sight, and be filled with the Holy Ghost.