(Tokyo Shinjuku Railway Terminals, an old and nostalgic place for some Japanese in a foreign country...; click to enlarge)FACTS, DATA, FORMULAE & THEORY
Total export of the Japanese listed companies (excluding the financial sector from the total 3700 businesses) to Asia between April and September has surpassed that to America for the first time by quarter basis.
Taiwan and Korea now export to China more than to America or Japan.
In this context, significance of American military presence in Japan and East Asia must be reviewed, since Japan spends a defense budget equivalent to only 0.9% of its GDP while the U.K. 2.4%.
SECTION I: GLOBAL WARMING
The year 2009 is not the hottest year in history, according to the Japanese Meteorological Agency.
Difference in Temperature from Standard Year:
Year---Global---N.Hemisphere---S.H.
1989 ... +0.05. .. +0.10... 0.00
1990 ... +0.19. .. +0.30... +0.08
1991 ... +0.12. .. +0.16... +0.09
1992 ... -0.02. .. -0.04... 0.00
1993 ... +0.01. .. -0.01... +0.03
1994 ... +0.08. .. +0.15... +0.01
1995 ... +0.16. .. +0.27... +0.05
1996 ... +0.06. .. +0.06... +0.05
1997 ... +0.24. .. +0.31... +0.16
1998 ... +0.37. .. +0.45... +0.28
1999 ... +0.15. .. +0.24... +0.04
2000 ... +0.15. .. +0.24... +0.05
2001 ... +0.27. .. +0.35... +0.18
2002 ... +0.31. .. +0.39... +0.22
2003 ... +0.31. .. +0.42... +0.19
2004 ... +0.27. .. +0.41... +0.13
2005 ... +0.32. .. +0.47... +0.16
2006 ... +0.31. .. +0.45... +0.16
2007 ... +0.28. .. +0.46... +0.09
2008 ... +0.20. .. +0.34... +0.06
2009 ... +0.31*. .. +0.40*... +0.22*
Note: The data of 2009 is on the temporary base.
(http://www.data.kishou.go.jp/climate/cpdinfo/temp/list/an_wld.html )
It can be interpreted that the global warming hit the peak in 2006, but it is still under the influence of the momentum of the temperature rise in 1990's and early 2000's.
SECTION II: UNEMPLOYMENT
There are many factors that decide an employment rate of any given era:
R = F(I, W, C, O, P, D, IE, CE, BP, II,...)
R: Unemployment rate of any given period
I: Inflation rate
W: Wage level
C: Domestic consumption level
O: Industrial output
P: Productivity
D: Deflation pressure
IE: Industrial expectations
CE: Consumer expectations
BP: Business potential
II: Industrial innovation
You have to decide or find the function with the above parameters which does not only give a forecast of future unemployment but also a clue to decrease unemployment.
However, once or till 1968, economists solely relied on the following function:
R = F(I), that is only unemployment vs. an inflation rate or a wage level
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The long-run Phillips Curve was thus vertical, so there was no trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Edmund Phelps won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2006 for this.
In the diagram, the long-run Phillips curve is the vertical red line. The NAIRU theory says that when unemployment is at the rate defined by this line, inflation will be stable. However, in the short-run policymakers will face an inflation-unemployment rate tradeoff marked by the "Initial Short-Run Phillips Curve" in the graph. Policymakers can therefore reduce the unemployment rate temporarily, moving from point A to point B through expansionary policy. However, according to the NAIRU, exploiting this short-run tradeoff will raise inflation expectations, shifting the short-run curve rightward to the "New Short-Run Phillips Curve" and moving the point of equilibrium from B to C. Thus the reduction in unemployment below the "Natural Rate" will be temporary, and lead only to higher inflation in the long run.
Since the short-run curve shifts outward due to the attempt to reduce unemployment, the expansionary policy ultimately worsens the exploitable tradeoff between unemployment and inflation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curve
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It is not R = F(I) but R = F(I, W, C, O, P, D, IE, CE, BP, II,...) with specific weights on specific parameters according to characteristics of a given period of history.
Most simply, R = F(B) where "B" is a potential of businesses to employ workers; and
B = G(CP, FP) where "CP" is a current profit and "FP" is a future profit; and
FP = H(SC, TC, NC) where "SC" is social conditions, "TC" is technological conditions, and "NC" is the natural conditions while SC includes international conditions.
You may find a great relationship between F and ,say, "I," or a great behavior of F against, say, "I," but it is just a part of far more complicated features of the function F.
What an economist should say is to achieve what for the rich or the poor what must be done to what extent by the government, businesses, and consumers.
Conversely, if all the rich men in a nation decide to increase unemployment "R," they can do it very easily, since R = F(Will to make poor people unhappy).
They might do it, since, after that, they can hire workers at lower wages...
SECTION III: UNEMPLOYMENT (2)
It is said that the unemployed were almost respected in Europe during the Middle Ages, since the poor are blessed by the God, according to the doctrine of the Vatican.
However Protestant Reformation changed this view, so that the poor and the unemployed came to be despised and hated because idleness came to be regarded as a sin like greed.
So, it is apparent that religion comes before economics.
Accordingly, you had better wonder what Islam and Judaism say about the unemployed.
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2009 Xmas Extra:
TIME's choice of Top 10 gadgets in 2009:
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Top 10 Gadgets
1. Motorola Droid
2. The Nook
3. Dyson Air Multiplier
4. iPhone 3GS
5. Canon EOS-1D Mark IV (Canon of Japan)
6. Dell Adamo XPS
7. FinePix Real 3D W1 (Fujifilm of Japan)
8. Casio G-Shock GW7900B-1 (Casio of Japan)
9. Beats Solo by Dr. Dre
10. Panasonic G10 Series Plasma HDTVs (Panasonic of Japan)
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1945379_1944278,00.html
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Gadget makers should employ more workers for 2010 sale.
Rev 12:13 And when the dragon saw that he was cast unto the earth, he persecuted the woman which brought forth the man child.
Rev 12:14 And to the woman were given two wings of a great eagle, that she might fly into the wilderness, into her place, where she is nourished for a time, and times, and half a time, from the face of the serpent.
Rev 12:15 And the serpent cast out of his mouth water as a flood after the woman, that he might cause her to be carried away of the flood.
Rev 12:16 And the earth helped the woman, and the earth opened her mouth, and swallowed up the flood which the dragon cast out of his mouth.