(Just around Tokyo)SAVING FACE
If you become prime minister of a country with the world's second largest GDP, you cannot save face sometimes.
Japan's Prime Minister Mr. Yukio Hatoyama was praised eight months ago domestically and globally as a kind of genius who realized once half a century regime change in Japan with a revolutionary mind set.
But now, he is recognized as a man of addictive breach of the policy pledge. His approval rating has fallen to just 20% from 75% in last September.
If he cannot save his face, how can he save the face of Japan?
If he resigns today or tomorrow, he will be still remembered as a kind of genius who realized once half a century regime change in Japan with a revolutionary mind set.
But, if Mr. Yukio Hatoyama advances into the summer election and loses it, how will he be remembered in history? It can be a suicidal fight.
And, in fact, former Korean President Roh Moo-hyun actually committed a suicide after resignation in 2009 ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roh_Moo-hyun.
Even former Taiwan President Mr. Chen Shui-bian was arrested and put into a jail after resignation in 2008 ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chen_Shui-bian).
Or, what lessons will P.M. Mr. Hatoyama give to the world?
SECTION I: Second Stage of Regime Change in Japan
In 2009, Japan had a new prime minister someway anti-American; and the U.S. sent a new ambassador to Tokyo who had no career in diplomacy before.
Something terrible could have happened; and it has happened.
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NPR
September 1, 2009
U.S. Relationship To Test Japan's New Ruling Party
by Louisa Lim
No Changes Expected By U.S.
John Roos, the new U.S. ambassador to Japan, does not think the U.S. will have a new type of relationship with Tokyo.
Roos spoke by phone to the incoming prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama, and says that, after the conversation, he is unconcerned about any lack of clarity in the DPJ's stance toward the U.S.
"I will tell you that the deep commitment of the relationship between the U.S. and Japan is there, on behalf of the DPJ, and just in the last 24 hours has been confirmed to me," Roos tells NPR.
"I really don't have the concern. The proof will be as our relationship continues to deepen, and we continue to work together on a whole load of bilateral issues going forward," he says.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=112445057
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Eight months after, Ambassador to Japan Mr. John Roos has reportedly said, "P.M. Hatoyama is untrustworthy; Foreign Minister Okada is unable to fix the matter; and Defence Minister Kitazawa is out of the question!"
(http://east.tegelog.jp/index.php?itemid=4964)
But, Japan is to hold an Upper House election this July or in August at the latest. After this election, it is likely that there will be no national elections till the summer of 2013, namely for three years.
So, the coming election is so important that people concerned try various prediction.
A majority of those concerned think that the ruling Democratic Party of Japan will lose seats and face. The current coalition with the Social Democratic Party and the People's New Party will also lose a majority in the Upper House.
The most likely scenario is that Mr. Hatoyama will resign before or after the election. Liberal Mr. Naoto Kan, presently Finance Minister, will assume premiership. The Buddhist New Komeito Party or/and the anti-bureaucratic Your Party will join the coalition.
But, the biggest concern is whether Mr. Ichiro Ozawa will continue to stay as Secretary General of the DPJ, since he leads the largest faction in the DPJ and has a strong influence on Mr. Hatoyama and even on Mr. Kan.
THE JAPAN'S UPPER HOUSE TOTAL SEATS: 242
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After the 2010 summer election as predicted:
The DPJ Coalition Camp: 115 (or 105)
The LDP Camp: 71 (or 81)
The New Komeito: 20
The Your Party: 15
The Communist Party: 10
Tachiagare Nippon: 4
Others: 7
(http://qa.fresheye.com/qa/view.php?qid=1139656641&kw=%E3%83%9E%E3%83%8B%E3%83%95%E3%82%A7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%88)
The DPJ will drastically lose the election, but by expanding its coalition membership to other/new parties, the DPJ will secure a majority in the Upper House while securing a 2/3 majority in the Lower House.
While the DPJ is losing confidence of voters unbearably in a large scale, it will consolidate its power base in the National Diet through expanded coalition, which is the most likely scenario.
But, this is a similar case to the ruling by the Liberal Democratic Party after the 2007 Upper House election, which actually paved the way for the 2009 regime change.
The significance is that Japan will be still reluctant to support America militarily in the War in Afghanistan but continue to be politically tolerant toward China and North Korea, which might be all however the secondary matter for Japan with a mandate for introducing more justice domestically.
SECTION II: "Osama Can Be In Washington"
One thing sure seems to be that Mr. Osama bin laden is atill at large.
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SAMAA News (International)
Osama can be in Washington: Ahmedinjad
Upadated on: 05 May 10 11:09 PM
TEHRAN: Iranian President Ahmedinjad rejecting the presence of Al-Qaeda Leader Osama bin Ladin in Iran said that he can be in Washington as he was close to President Bush, SAMAA reported Wednesday.
In an interview with American TV in answering a question he said Osama was doing oil business with George W Bush therefore he can be in America.
He stated that the stance of Iran with regard to Afghanistan and terrorism was very clear and news of presence of Osama in Iran was strange.
http://samaa.tv/News19802-Osama_can_be_in_Washington_Ahmedinjad.aspx
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Saddam Hussein tried to save face without fleeing to Paris, though France invited him before the American invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Can America eventually save face if CIA and FBI cannot find where Mr. Osama bin Laden is or whether he is alive or dead forever?
On the other hand, it is unthinkable that both Iran and Pakistan have no decisive information about Mr. Osama bin Laden.
What is then at stake in their policies pursuing war or nuclear weapons? Does it deserve their losing face each?
*** *** *** ***
It is said to strike while the iron is hot.
An old sword should be struck and burnt again.
A new sword should be also struck and burnt again.
The, you can have two newer swords.
(http://www.fukuchan.ac/music/j-sengo1/daigakukazoeuta.html
Education must be designed with reverence for life and God. In this context, universities in America look more authentic than Japanese ones. But, failed American education is useless as failed churches.)
Rev 5:13 And every creature which is in heaven, and on the earth, and under the earth, and such as are in the sea, and all that are in them, heard I saying, Blessing, and honour, and glory, and power, be unto him that sitteth upon the throne, and unto the Lamb for ever and ever.