Thursday, January 30, 2014

"And the angel said unto her" - Nuclear Plants Halt Lessons in Japan


Buddhist Temple in Asakusa, Tokyo


Nuclear Plants Halt Lessons in Japan

Some say that it is a big social experiment that Japan has stopped its all 50 some nuclear power plants.

How long can such a nation sustain its economy?

But what supplies electricity to households and businesses in Japan to fill the electricity supply-demand gap caused by the long-term emergency halt of nuclear power plants?  It is thermal power generation.  So, Japan has increased its import of liquid natural gas (LNG), as fuel, mostly from the Middle East.  In 2013, Japan spent $7 trillion for import of this single product.  In contrast it paid $3.5 trillion for LNG in 2010, one year before the occurrence of the 2011 Tsunami Disaster which triggered the Fukshima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

Electricity charges also went up after the start of the Nuclear Accident.  Compared with rates before the Accident, the electricity rate in Japan increased by 20% or more.  In comparison with a rate in South Korea, it is twice or more higher.  It adversely contributed to the balance of trade of Japan, minus $110 billion.   This is one of major reasons why export from Japan has not expanded as expected due to the yen depreciation which was drastically realized by application of Abenomics.  

If the exchange rate of today between the Japanese yen and the US dollar was the same as that in 2010 or 2011, even the huge import of LNG to use as fuel for thermal power generation would not cause a huge deficit in trade balance of today.

However it should be noted why Abenomics worked well to avert the trend of the stronger yen which had become the norm after the Lehman Shock of 2008.

In the wake of the 2008 Financial Crisis, FRB supplied a huge amount of dollars to the US money sector, which increased the balance sheet of FRB by 214%.  Similarly, the UK central bank also expanded its balance sheet by 282%; ECB of Europe by 108%.  But the Bank of Japan did not supply yen so much partly because the Japanese financial sector was only relatively lightly hit by the Crisis set off in Wall Street.  BOJ increased its balance sheet only by 23%.  This huge imbalance of the amount of money available in market caused the higher yen.  Abenomics is an effort to correct it.  It is said that PM Shinzo Abe followed advice from veteran economist Koichi Hamada, a professor in Yale University in adopting this monetary policy.

Now the election for Tokyo Governor is going on in Japan.  The public strongly focuses on this election, since it is actually competition between pro-Abe candidate Masuzoe, an ex-state minister, and anti-nuclear ex-prime minister Morihiro Hosokawa.    

If Mr. Masuzoe should win this race, PM Abe, who has been busy selling Japanese nuclear technology to India, Turkey, Vietnam, etc., is expected to more explicitly promote recovery and restart of use of nuclear power plants.  If Mr. Hosokawa should defeat the Abe camp, the Government would be forced to take a more moderate stance in restoring unclear power generation in Japan.

Incidentally, this Tokyo gubernatorial election is needed urgently as former Governor Inose was forced to step down due to a money scandal though he was became a kind of hero in the Japanese society as he succeeded in inviting the 2020 Olympics to Tokyo.
 




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Luk 1:28 And the angel came in unto her, and said, Hail, thou that art highly favoured, the Lord is with thee: blessed art thou among women.
Luk 1:29 And when she saw him, she was troubled at his saying, and cast in her mind what manner of salutation this should be.
Luk 1:30 And the angel said unto her, Fear not, Mary: for thou hast found favour with God.
Luk 1:31 And, behold, thou shalt conceive in thy womb, and bring forth a son, and shalt call his name JESUS.