(Who could accompany EEE Reporter in this bitter mission at the power center of Japan!; August 29, 2009)Great and Smart 2% or 4% in Election or Environment
I have a feeling that the global warming boom is going to be dwindling, though the likely rise in sea levels cannot be neglected for some time.
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"Even doubling or tripling the amount of CO2′ will have 'little impact' on temps"
From New Zealand Climate Science
Professor Geoffrey G Duffy
DEng, PhD, BSc, ASTC Dip., FRS NZ, FIChemE, CEng
So what are the key players in ‘Climate Change’? The major driver is the sun. Warming depends on the sun. Cooling is due to the lack of sun’s energy. Radiant energy enters the earth’s atmosphere. Air (on a dry basis) consists mainly of nitrogen 78.08% and oxygen 20.94%. Of the 0.98% remaining, 95% of that (ie 0.934%), or almost all is the inert gas argon. Carbon dioxide CO2 is a trace. It is less than 400ppm (parts per million) or 0.04% of all the atmosphere (on a dry basis). Surprisingly, less than a fifth of that is man-made CO2 (0.008% of the total), and that is only since the beginning of the industrial era and the rapid increase in world population.
CARBON DIOXIDE CO2
BEST ESTIMATES OF THE LOCATION of CO2 as carbon (C)
Giga tonnes Gt (BILLION tonnes)
Atmosphere...........................750 Gt
Oceans – surface......................1,000 Gt
Oceans – intermediate / deep.........38,000 Gt
Vegetation (soil, detritus)...........2,200 Gt
............................................41,950 Gt
Annual EXCHANGE of CO2
Ocean surface – Atmosphere............90 Gt
Vegetation – atmosphere.................60 Gt
Between Marine biota and Ocean Surface.......50 Gt
Oceans( surface-to-deep).................100 Gt
Human emissions* (coal, oil, nat. gas)............6 Gt <2% 306 Gt
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/09/04/even-doubling-or-tripling-the-amount-of-co2-will-have-little-impact-on-temps/
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The above table tells that CO2 emission ascribed to human activities accounts for less than two percent of the total amount of CO2 output and input to the air from various sources.
However this fraction of "2%" is significant in any matters.
One example is that Japan's Prime Minister Mr. Taro Aso believed that he could maintain his power by winning the 8/30 general election through acquisition of 2% more voters.
In the previous 9/11 election of 2005, the ruling parties got 34,875,400 votes (51.43%) while the opposition parties were totally voted for by 32,935,669 voters (48.57%).
Though the ruling LDP and New Komeito were given 327 seats among 480 of the Lower House, the difference was just 3%. If 2% had moved from the ruling coalition to the oppositions, the former would have only 49.43% while the latter would enjoy 50.57%.
Before the official campaign period began for this 8/30 election, Prime Minister Mr. Taro Aso must have been informed that the reverse of the 9/11 election could happen.
Accordingly, Prime Minister Mr. Taro Aso must have thought that he could win as long as he could take back 2% of voters that had started to shift to Mr. Yukio Hatoyama's DPJ from his LDP.
It must not have looked difficult for veteran politician Mr. Taro Aso to get 2% more support mostly from yet-undecided voters.
In this context, it is very reasonable that LDP president Mr. Taro Aso exhaustively stuck to it out to the end or till the day before the voting, running around Japan, addressing voters, and attacking the DPJ so as to get 2% more voters.
However, his calculation was wrong, no matter how much his great efforts deserved attention, since Mr. Taro Aso of the LDP fought like a lonely samurai general.
In the middle of August, there were 55 people among 100 who looked like having not decided to vote for any party. Yet, those who could be influenced by such campaign efforts accounted for only 20% or so, since 60% of 55 people must have been already conditioned to eventually vote against the ruling LDP due to wrong pension-management of the Government unless act of God had happened.
Therefore this "2%" is not "2 among 100" but "2 among 20 or so (= 55 - 55*0.6)." It was actually 10 among 100 true swing voters.
Prime Minister Mr. Taro Aso failed in seeing the correct level of the hurdle, which was not "2 among 100" but "10 among 100." You cannot, of course, move 10 voters among 100 in the two-week official campaign period by your own effort, though you can for 2 voters among 100.
In the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election, it was "4%." This swing 4% was, however, a fixed minimum result of the prolonged war on Terror, the health care issues, the subprime loan mortgage issue, and finally the 2008 financial crisis. It was the last fixed margin you cannot reduce. Yet, it is just 4% that gave Mr. Barack Obama a secured victory.
So, the fraction of "2%" is significant in any matters.
But, if mankind increases this "2% CO2" that totally accounts for "0.008% among all the gasses" in the air, the effect of CO2 absorbing heat from the ground and issuing it to the air again might not cause a change in temperature, namely 0.2- to 0.4-degree rise from the normal level, since it is "big 2%" against the yearly average temperature of about 15 degrees Celsius for the earth.
How much one molecule CO2 and total CO2 molecules in the air contribute to the rise of temperature of the earth must be scientifically reviewed.
You would probably need 12 sets of new equations but not single set as used currently in the United Nations.
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Now, that is all for this week...baby...
(Ah, quel moment magique! It is not only for 308 seats taken by the DPJ on 8/30 of this summer election. It is neither for only 119 seats taken by the LDP despite the 9/11 election victory four years ago. But, how the goddess of victory would smile in Paris, New York, and Beijing? Anyway, democracy has won as you must have so wished, dear, before it is too late.
http://www.softjock.com/MIDI/ThisMagicMoment.mid
Source:http://www.softjock.com/JukeBox1.htm)
Mar 9:5 And Peter answered and said to Jesus, Master, it is good for us to be here: and let us make three tabernacles; one for thee, and one for Moses, and one for Elias.
Mar 9:6 For he wist not what to say; for they were sore afraid.
Mar 9:7 And there was a cloud that overshadowed them: and a voice came out of the cloud, saying, This is my beloved Son: hear him.