Real Trends (tendances réelles)
[Updated in March 2012]
In these 15 years Japanese GDP has not grown in persisting deflation while the government has issued a huge amount of bonds. Accordingly, the Western Media, economists, and journalists all wrote in this decade that Japan would soon go bankrupt. And, they welcomed the rise of China so enthusiastically.
(Unlike Greece, 95% of bonds the Japanese Government has issued has been purchased by Japanese banks and Japanese people. As long as government bonds are bought by its people domestically, the bonds are not simply debts of a nation but also assets of the people. That is why Japan can economically function well with its outstanding national debts reaching 200% of its GDP in terms of value.)
But, in these few years, Lehman Brothers disappeared; GM went bankrupt though it is now on the old track; and the US rating is going to be pulled down. The European elite cannot laugh at Japan any more since it was not Japan but Iceland, Ireland, Greece, and so on that are going to suffer financial collapse.
On the other hand, China has expanded its GDP by investing money equivalent to half of its GDP into the real estate sector. Accordingly, it is estimated that local governments in China have nonperforming loans in total valued at more than $2 trillion.
Put simply, the end of economics created in Europe and the U.S. seems to be near.
SECTION I: Real Stock Prices
It is found that the "real" SP500 index reached its ceiling in August 2000 and is now at the level it marked around 1997 as the index is modified with the consumer price index (CPI) to be represented by the red curve in the figure below.
It is also found that the "real" Nikkei index has fallen to the level it marked in December 1972 as the index is modified with the consumer price index (CPI) to be represented by the red curve in the figure below.
For example, between 1995 and 2010, CPI increased by 37% in the U.S. while it dropped by 1% in Japan. This is one of major factors for the strong yen against the weak dollar.
Moderate inflation is observed in the U.S. but persisting deflation has become the norm in Japan. The economic situation is so different but something is common in this trend.
After 1995, the American economy was galvanized by IT power. Every office and home in America started to use PCs connected to the Internet. Many businesses and individuals found new frontiers where their initiative could be fully exercised. Online business flourished. Venture business was everywhere. Wall Street found new clients in large quantity connected through the Internet.
In early 1970's, Japanese businesses caught up with the U.S. in terms of electronics, semiconductor technologies, and mainframe computer technology. Japanese makers also faced challenge of oil crises to conquer them with technological innovation to invent highly energy-efficient machines and systems. This advancement gave foundation for Japan to enjoy status of the world second largest economy only next to the U.S.
Now, both the countries, Japan and the U.S., look like consuming merit they cultivated and obtained when they started to launch their economy on higher orbits in 1970's and 1990's, respectively.
SECTION II: Businesses
The trend of average PER in the US stock market is as follows:
It clearly shows the magnitude of the burst of the IT bubble around 2001. The subprime mortgage boom sustained a little business in the middle of 2000s but it was put an end to with the debacle of Wall Street in 2008. US businesses are still in the aftermath of the 2001 burst eventually. If total businesses are so weak, employment must naturally become so weak.
The general trend in the US money markets is as follows:
These trends show that the US experienced a huge bubble and its burst around 2001. It was started around 1995 with strong support of the computer/Internet technologies. However, Wall Street businesses and super-rich people tried to sustain their wealth by selling subprime loan houses to million of poor American consumers. Even Wal-Mart tried to save its profitability by importing cheap commodities from China in a very large scale. As a consequence, the level of prices of stocks sold at the New York Stock Exchange was kept over 10,000 dollars with huge infusion of dollars by FRB and the US Government. In this way, Wall Street businesses and super-rich people have been saved despite the major fall of the US money market.
In other word, the US money market was severely damaged but could survive with Wall Street businesses, Wal-Mart, GM. etc., and super-rich people. And, all of them don't care the 9% unemployment level and the state of Occupy Wall Street people.
(to be continued...)
APPENDIX. Imperial Navy of Japan (1872 - 1945)
Battleship Ise was built in 1916. She was converted to a battle-ship/aircraft-carrier during WWII. (Navigating at 25.31 knots, the length 219.62 meters, 4 x 35.6cm guns, 22 planes )
Battle Ship Nagato, built in 1920 as the world first battleship equipped with 16.1-inch (41 centimeter) guns, navigating at max. 26.5 knots, the length 225 meters:
Battle Ship Yamato, built in 1941 as the world largest battleship equipped with the world largest 46 centimeter guns, navigating at max. 27.46 knots, the length 263 meters:
Yamato was sunk in a battle against 380 American planes on its way to Okinawa at the last stage of WWII in 1945.
I-400 Class Submarines, built in 1944 and 1945 as the world largest submarines or submarine-aircraft-carriers during WWII with ability to carry three attack airplanes in their 122 -meter long hull, navigating submerged at max. 6.5 knots:
Navy Type 0 Carrier Fighter (Zero) was introduced in 1939, flying at a max. speed of 500 km/h over a range of max. 3,350 km (2,100 miles). Total 10,430 Zeros were built.
Navy fighter Kawanishi N1K2 (Shiden-kai) was introduced in 1945 as a successor of the Zero in preparation for an expected battle on mainland Japan. The Shiden-kai, at a max. speed of 594km/h, was a modified version of the Shiden. The number of production of the Shidens and the Shiden-kais was about 1,400.
The Imperial Navy of Japan had possessed and built total 25 aircraft carriers before and during WWII.
One of them is Shokaku, as below shown, which could carry 84 attack planes such as "Zeros." This is actually one of 6 aircraft carriers sent to Pearl Harbor in December 1941.
During the World War II, the Navy of the Empire of Japan suffered about 420,000 deaths.
(The Army of the Empire of Japan lost 1,440,000 soldiers, officers, and generals.)
Battle of the Yellow Sea b/w the Empire of Japan and the Russian Empire in 1904
(S16 means the 16th year of the Showa-Era which is 1941; S17 is 1942.)
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A woman who was in Hiroshima during WWII married an American to live in the U.S. after WWII. She, of course, suffered the atomic bomb attack on August 6, 1945. So, when she had her first baby, she was anxious whether or not her baby had no physical defect. She soon counted the number of fingers of the new born baby to find five and just five fingers in each hand with a great relief.
Many Japanese from Hiroshima immigrated to the United States before WWII. (Actually Hiroshima Prefecture sent the largest number of immigrants to the U.S. and Central/South Americas among all the prefectures in Japan.) Their children born in the U.S. had U.S. citizenship, though many of such families returned to Japan as WWII started. After WWII, many of such children left Japan for the U.S. Accordingly, there have been some Japanese Americans who are also Hiroshima-atomic-bomb victims in the U.S.
On August 9, 1945, another atomic bomb was used by the U.S. military on Nagasaki City, Japan.
(August of Japan is the month for reterospection of the Imperial Army and Navy that existed till 1945...
Rev 8:6 And the seven angels which had the seven trumpets prepared themselves to sound.
Rev 8:7 The first angel sounded, and there followed hail and fire mingled with blood, and they were cast upon the earth: and the third part of trees was burnt up, and all green grass was burnt up.
Rev 8:8 And the second angel sounded, and as it were a great mountain burning with fire was cast into the sea: and the third part of the sea became blood;
Rev 8:9 And the third part of the creatures which were in the sea, and had life, died; and the third part of the ships were destroyed.