Saturday, November 12, 2011

"the kingdom of heaven suffereth violence" - Catastrophe or Equilibrium

Tokyo Downtown

Catastrophe or Equilibrium

Trends in the World through History

The rise and fall of an empire of a civilization is a common theme in study of history.

If you understand this phenomenon well, you can change your view on the world and your own life.  At least you would never believe a 1000 year prosperity of Nazi Germany, 10,000 year dominance of the Soviet Union, or eternal supremacy of the British Empire.  

But, rises of some entities in history have been so remarkable, that their falls look so significant in study of the world.  Especially, a state of economy in each major nation presents examples easy to comprehend.   

Tokyo Nikkei 225

NASDAQ Composite Index

Dow Jones seit 1927
Dow Jones Index

Crude Oil

Yen vs. Euro

Shanghai Index

As long as population of the whole mankind is growing, economy will be expanded as a whole on the earth.  Japanese economy has been saturated due to its limited size of the land; the US economy and Chinese will even face saturation.  But the world is larger than Japan, America, or China.  The total economy of mankind will continue to grow for decades at least.

          gdp, in millions

Global Total GDP

But, there will be a drastic change in paradigms of economy and society when growth of human population on the earth has stopped.
Global Population

Yet, as so often discussed, a great catastrophe in the nature could destroy the whole economy and maybe civilizations on the earth.  The presently identified greatest threat from the nature is the global warming.
CO2 Concentration & Temperature

So, let's see some example of a drastic rise and a fall of living things.

This is the population graph of yeast cells in a 10% sugar solution. Note that the yeast  population first explodes exponentially, and is then followed by population die-off as the finite nutrients are exhausted and their own waste products pollute their environment.

Nonetheless, over and over again, a cycle of a rise and a fall has been repeated in the human history. 

American Home Values

Ratio of National Debts vs. GDP in Japan

So, some theories are presented to analyze the state of the growth/fall cycles and changes in contents of the phenomenon.

The sigmoid (depth-1) segments from the year of 1550 when the modern civilization established into bicentennial long phase of 'nationalization', 'industrialization', and 'informatization'.

The key to understanding these phenomena is entropy.  While a scale and a level of material and energy undergo the cycles of a rise and a fall, entropy goes up steadily to be saturated in a closed space or system such as the earth.

As the above figure indicated, in a closed space such as the earth, any human activities would result in a halt where equilibrium is attained.  This equilibrium is between the allowable limit of entropy in the space, possible consumption of energy and resources available in the space, and stability supported by causality linked in systems working in the space.  If this equilibrium is lost, the whole civilization will collapse.  In the case, the equilibrium can be just a top, flat, and short portion in the above curve of the population graph of yeast cells.

While a civilization is growing, it causes great disorder around it.  While a big city is being built, wastes from consumption of the city are being discharged to its peripherals, increasing total entropy.  While a civilization is falling, it causes great disorder inside and around it.  While a big city is falling, debris from structures will increase total entropy inside and outside the city.

The Western Roman Empire followed this rule.  And, today, with great power of GDP and money beyond comparison with the Roman Empire, the whole world is increasing and accelerating an increase of entropy.  Entropy due to use of material and energy can be somewhat controlled by development of science and technology.  But, entropy simply expanding due to GDP and money cannot be simply contained.  That is why we need a new paradigm, philosophy, or religion to cope with a possible great fall of today's total civilizations on the earth.

An individual economy in the world will rise and fall in many times.  But, the whole human population, the balance of the nature, the limit of cultural development of mankind, and so on might eventually lead to a fatal catastrophe to all the mankind while entropy of the earth is simply growing toward an equilibrium level which is also beyond our imagination of today.

(to be continued...)

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Mat 11:12 And from the days of John the Baptist until now the kingdom of heaven suffereth violence, and the violent take it by force.
Mat 11:13 For all the prophets and the law prophesied until John.
Mat 11:14 And if ye will receive it, this is Elias, which was for to come.
Mat 11:15 He that hath ears to hear, let him hear.

Friday, November 11, 2011

"Jesus entered into Jerusalem" - World Maps

Around the Tokyo Station

World Maps
[Updated in March 2012]

A big incident in Japan today was an announcement delivered by Prime Minister Mr. Noda.

He said that he would start to join negotiations for TPP.  He plans to inform US President Mr. Obama of his decision in the APEC meeting scheduled in Hawaii this weekend.

However, at least 40% of Japanese voters are against the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement, tough another 40% are in favor with Japan's entry to TPP.  Yet, in a democratic nation such as Japan, it would be very difficult to pursue a policy against which 40% of voters make an objection.

From the beginning, President Mr. Obama intends to increase employment in the US by increasing  export through TPP.  So, Japan's participation to TPP is a big issue for the Obama Administration. In this context, Japan is in a invulnerable position.  Yet, PM Mr. Noda looks like being compelled to join it, since major Japanese makers want the Government to conclude TPP.  The Japanese Federation of Economic Organizations is also pushing the political and social movement toward TPP.

Nonetheless, TPP will force Japanese farmers to compete with American and Australian farmers without protection of tariff duties.  As the land size of Japan is far smaller than those of America and Australia, Japanese agriculture, especially rice farming, cannot compete with American and Australian counterparts.  Even other Asian countries produce rice at lower costs.

So, TPP is very controversial for Japan as it aims at 0% tariff duties on every product.  But, US businesses would be able to enter Japanese markets in various sectors, such as the medicine, the legal service, and the public work. On the other hand, Japanese makers would be allowed to export products to America without customs duties, though they are just 2.5% or so now.  Yet, this margin is too small compared with a wide fluctuation of the exchange rate between the yen and the dollar.

In total, it is not so advantageous for Japan.  Japan should not join TPP.  But, as long as the Noda Cabinet continues, it will be difficult to break away from TPP.  So, this can be a reason to change the Japanese prime mister in a year or so, again.

Standard World Map Used in Japan
The US Military Bases in the World

Terror Index

Extreme risk
High risk
Medium risk
Low risk
No Data



Nuclear Power Plants in the World

Fukushima Daiichi Radiation/Fallout Measurement

Fukushima Daiichi Release Estimation

Chenobyl Fall-Out

G7, BRICs, VISTA, Other G20

Major Religions in the World

Adult Literacy Rate of Developing Countries

The IP Address Distribution

The Sate of Use of Twitter

Population Density

Map by Greek Hecataeus (c. 550 BC – c. 476 BC)
The Map Made by  Ptolemy in AD 150

The First Map Including America in 1507

The World First Xmas Post Stamp in 1898

How Mankind Spread on the Earth
("10万年前" = 10 of 10,000 years ago;

Mankind Spreading Traced Using Subgroup of Y Chromosome

Neanderthal Distribution

The World Vegetation

The Earth 120 Million Years Ago & Split of Mammals

How Continental Plates are Moving Today

The Global Volcanic/Quake Belts


Real Time Earthquake Map

Crude Oil & Gas Reserves Map
Snow-Covered Japan in January

The World in 12 Months

(to be continued...)

*** *** *** ***

There are 1,500 children, junior high-school students, and high school students who lost their parents in the 3/11 tsunami that rushed to northeast coasts of Japan on March 11, 2011.

One high school girl lost her mother while the two were running away from a tsunami.  They abandoned the car on a road with many cars jammed and started to climb up a hill nearby.  Her mother said on the uphill ramp that it was hard to climb.  Then just one meter away from the daughter, the mother was engulfed by the mighty tsunami.  But, the daughter was saved like a miracle on the slope of the hill.

Months after, the high school girl met another girl, two years younger, in a certain gathering of high school students from different tsunami affected areas.  The younger high school student also lost her mother while running away together from a fast and massive tsunami.  Her mother being stuck to something said to her daughter, "Please do not leave me!" But her daughter judged that if she had tried to help her mother she should have been drowned, too.  So, she ran away from the imminent danger to be saved alone eventually.  All beyond the tragedies, the two high-school girls became good friends and looked somehow happy on TV broadcast around Tokyo.

There are many such stories, since 20,000 people lost their lives in northeast Japan on March 11, 2011.

Mar 11:11 And Jesus entered into Jerusalem, and into the temple: and when he had looked round about upon all things, and now the eventide was come, he went out unto Bethany with the twelve.
Mar 11:12 And on the morrow, when they were come from Bethany, he was hungry:
Mar 11:13 And seeing a fig tree afar off having leaves, he came, if haply he might find any thing thereon: and when he came to it, he found nothing but leaves; for the time of figs was not yet.
Mar 11:14 And Jesus answered and said unto it, No man eat fruit of thee hereafter for ever. And his disciples heard it.
Mar 11:15 And they come to Jerusalem: and Jesus went into the temple, and began to cast out them that sold and bought in the temple, and overthrew the tables of the moneychangers, and the seats of them that sold doves;
Mar 11:16 And would not suffer that any man should carry any vessel through the temple.
Mar 11:17 And he taught, saying unto them, Is it not written, My house shall be called of all nations the house of prayer? but ye have made it a den of thieves.