On Tokyo Bay
(Click to enlarge.)War on Earthquakes
Foreigners living around Tokyo must be anxious about whether Tokyo will be hit hard by a big earthquake soon.
No large-scale or M8 class earthquake is expected to happen for decades.
But, an inland-earthquake of an M6.0 class can happen at any time to locally destroy streets and towns in and around Tokyo.
So, they have to decide to stay or leave Tokyo. It is up to their trust in Japan.
CHAPTER I: How Japan is Pulled
The Japanese Archipelago receives mostly pushing work toward the Asian Continent.
But, a region from the north of Tokyo to Hokkaido Island is being pulled toward the Pacific Ocean. The 3/11 Great Earthquake occurred off the coast of this northeast area of Honshu Island, pulling the mass of land toward the east.
(Click to enlarge.)http://mekira.gsi.go.jp/project/f3/ja/index.html
The reason is that the Pacific Continental Plate is sinking there. The Plate is going under the North American Plate at the northeast region of Honshu Island or around and north of Tokyo.
(Click to enlarge.)http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/know/whitep/2-1.html
The earthquakes that happened from March 6 to April 6 are plotted on the following map indicating Central and East Honshu Island, Japan.
(Click to enlarge.)http://ktjisinmap.appspot.com/
There is a boundary that prevents progress of big earthquakes into the region around Tokyo. It is apparently due to the difference in directions of of the force pulling or pushing the Japanese Archipelago.
In summary, the Kanto Plain with Tokyo at its southernmost area is exempted from the turmoil caused by the recent continental plate movement that triggered the 3/11 Earthquake on March 11, 2011.
CHAPTER II: 1500-Year Long Study
In these 1500 years, many big earthquakes have happened in Japan.
However, not all of them inflicted severe damage to people and the society. Only those that made Japan suffer great casualties are plotted by the Seismological Society of Japan in the map below, covering past 1500 years. Note that it presents earthquakes that happened before 1994. But, especially as for M8.0 or more larger earthquakes, it is still useful.
http://www.zisin.jp/modules/pico/index.php?content_id=1266
It tells that Tokyo and the Kanto Plain can be hit at any time by an M7.0 or M8.0 earthquake.
There is no such a capital of a nation in the world as Tokyo which is surely to be half destroyed in 1500 years.
It can come today or tomorrow, or otherwise 100 years later, depending on the power balance between the Philippine Sea Plate or the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate in the region stretching from the Kii Peninsula to the Bousou Peninsula.
CHAPTER III: Tokyo Earthquake History
Major earthquakes with a magnitude 7.1 or larger that happened in these 1500 years around Tokyo are as follows:
Year....Magnitude...Area around Tokyo
818...M7.9...North Kanto
878...M7.4...Sagami/Musashi
1257...M7.5...South Kanto
1293...M7.1...Kamakura
1498...M8.4...Suruga/(Westward)
1605...M8...Suruga/(Westward)
1633...M7.1...Sagami/Izu
1649...M7.1...Musashi
1677...M7.4...Bousou
1703...M8.1...Kanto
1707...M8.7...Kanto/Sagami/(Westward)
1707...Mt. Fuji Erupted
1854...M8.4...Bousou/Izu/(Westward)
1895...M7.2...Ibaraki
1909...M7.5...Bousou
1923...M7.9...Sagami/South Kanto (Great Kanto Earthquake)
1924...M7.3...Tanzawa
1930...M7.3...North Izu
1953...M7.4...Bousou
The noteworthy incidents are:
1498...M8.4...Suruga/(Westward)
1703...M8.1...Kanto
1707...M8.7...Kanto/Sagami/(Westward)
1854...M8.4...Bousou/Izu/(Westward)
1923...M7.9...Sagami/South Kanto
It can be roughly illustrated as follows:
1500...M8+
1700...M8+
1850...M8+
1925...M8-
The time interval is shortened from 200 years to 150 years and to 75 years. But, around 1950, 1975, or 2000, no M8 class earthquakes occurred around Tokyo.
The sequence can be further simplified:
1500...M8+
1700...M8+
1900+/-50...M8+/-
Then, next will be 2100+/-50...M8+/-
In this case, Tokyo will be safe for 40 years or so, or till 2050, from an M8 class earthquake.
CHAPTER IV: Tokyo Inland Earthquake
It is said an epicentral-earthquake or an inland earthquake with a magnitude of 5.0 to 7.0 can happen at any time in Tokyo.
Some scientists claims that there is a special mass of land under the Kanto Plain, on which Tokyo is situated, called the Kanto Fragment.
http://www.aist.go.jp/aist_j/new_research/nr20081010/nr20081010.html
It can be a local tremor, but might damage Tokyo hard.
So, the Government must take preventive measures as soon as possible against a possible inland earthquake to be triggered by the friction between the Kanto Fragment and the Philippine plate or the Pacific plate.
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In a wider scope, there is a 400-year time cycle for activated state of earthquakes around Tokyo:
1) 800's, 2) 1200's, 3) 1600's, and 4) 1900's
The 4th period must be 2000's, strictly speaking; but a 100 year margin seems to accelerate the last cycle.
So, during 2000's, not so many earthquakes might happen as they were already put into work in 1900's.
Anyway, as Mt. Fuji is situated at the converging point of the Eurasia plate, the Philippine Sea plate, the North American Plate, and the Pacific plate, Japan is so unique in terms of its position on the earth. And now you know why Mt. Fuji is so special and holy in the world.
So, if you are given Mt. Fuji, you might be able to reject any temptation by Devil in terms of pride in the world.
(Born in the USA is not so critical as living in California nowadays...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZD4ezDbbu4)
Luk 4:6 And the devil said unto him, All this power will I give thee, and the glory of them: for that is delivered unto me; and to whomsoever I will I give it.
Luk 4:7 If thou therefore wilt worship me, all shall be thine.
Luk 4:8 And Jesus answered and said unto him, Get thee behind me, Satan: for it is written, Thou shalt worship the Lord thy God, and him only shalt thou serve.