Saturday, October 05, 2013

"one Simon, whose surname is Peter" - Toyota and GM

Sumida River, Tokyo


Toyota and GM

In 1999 when Japan was in the early stage of its 15-year deflation, Toyota sold cars only about half the amount GM sold.


 http://gajendratawade.weebly.com/1/post/2009/12/post-title-click-and-type-to-edit1.html


But before the Lehman Shock Toyota caught up with GM in a neck-to neck race.  It was partly due to the yen-dollar exchange rate mostly over 100 yen per dollar, meaning the weaker yen, despite deflation in Japan.



Indeed, deflation in Japan was a factor for possibly pushing up the yen stronger against the US dollar, but the rate was mostly over 100 yen per dollar since the US financial power was regraded as so strong, and the Japanese Government purchased so many of US Treasury bonds.  But Lehman shock changed this paradigm.
 


http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/13/news/companies/global_auto_sales_race/index.htm

Specifically after 2009, Japan came to suffer extremely strong yen, 90 to 80 yen per dollar.  In addition to the crash of the US economy, Toyota's sales dropped with GM's.  No significant lead of Toyota was observed after the 2008 Lehman Shock.

But due to Abenomics, this exchange rate has been greatly corrected to 99 yen per dollar.  Accordingly we may see soon the effect of this exchange rate on global sales of Toyota cars and other Japanese exported products.

Incidentally, it is also said that Korean makers have enjoyed in these years exchange rates very favorable for their exporting businesses.

And one thing to be noted is that Japanese have not been kicking around in these 15 years of deflation or stagnation of growth of its GDP as shown by Toyota.  Japanese have been working very hard as before.  But its economy have not shown any remarkable expansion.  Japan's GDP has been almost flat in its trend in these 15 years due to the very complicated deflation.

Finally some economists of Japan succeeded to persuade Prime Minister Abe and Governor of the Bank of Japan Kuroda that if the Bank of Japan purchased Japanese Government bonds circulated in the market in a larger amount than the former Governor of BOJ had did, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar would go down, leading to improvement of Japanese export.  Consequently, even the stock price index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange has been boosted by 80%.

Nonetheless the decision by PM Abe to increase the consumption tax rate from 5% to 8% in the next spring is regraded as an ominous factor for weakening of the Japanese economy.  It might even cause the yen to get stronger again.  The overall result might also appear in the statistics of car production of Toyota.    



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Act 10:3 He saw in a vision evidently about the ninth hour of the day an angel of God coming in to him, and saying unto him, Cornelius.
Act 10:4 And when he looked on him, he was afraid, and said, What is it, Lord? And he said unto him, Thy prayers and thine alms are come up for a memorial before God.
Act 10:5 And now send men to Joppa, and call for one Simon, whose surname is Peter:
Act 10:6 He lodgeth with one Simon a tanner, whose house is by the sea side: he shall tell thee what thou oughtest to do.
Act 10:7 And when the angel which spake unto Cornelius was departed, he called two of his household servants, and a devout soldier of them that waited on him continually;
Act 10:8 And when he had declared all these things unto them, he sent them to Joppa.