Monday, February 22, 2016

"and she repented not" - Conditions of the Next US President

Around Tokyo

Conditions of the Next US President

The first elite member in the US establishment who became US President after WWII was George H. W. Bush.

He succeeded Ronald Reagan who was a former actor and was not from the American elite community or establishment.

But H.W. Bush was defeated in the 1992 presidential election by Bill Clinton who was from a fringe of the American elite community or establishment.  Vice President Al Gore is also from a fringe of the American elite community or establishment.  But Gore is very intellectual.  He is close to the academic elite circle as he has later become a strong advocate of anti-global warming movement.

In the 2000 presidential election, Gore was defeated by George W. Bush, though the result of the vote counting in Florida, which decided the victory of W. Bush, was so dubious.

W. Bush is from the American elite community or establishment like his father but is not so intellectual.  In the presidential election, Bush appealed his somewhat humble personality as an ordinary man unlike arrogant Gore who did not hide his intellectual capacity.

But the one who succeeded W. Bush was Barack Obama who is African America.  His racial feature counted much in the 2008 presidential election which was carried out in the middle of the Financial Crisis and the War on Terror for which the Bush Administration was highly responsible.  American voters lost confidence in the American elite community or establishment.  So, the African American lawyer-turned senator was elected on the rebound.

This trend clearly shows that American voters have chosen presidential candidates who are not from the the American elite community or establishment or who possess some strong merit or characteristics that ordinary American can accept even if the candidates are directly or indirectly linked to, or from a fringe of, the American elite community or establishment.

All the major presidential candidates of today meet this condition.  Hillary Clinton is female, which means she is from a fringe of the establishment.  Sanders is a kind of socialist.  Trump is a unique billionaire who is also a TV personality.  Rubio is of Cuba origin.  But who has more merit than others to receive more empathy from voters?  And who takes more advantage in domestic and global situations?

The key is how voters judge the seven years of the Obama administration.  In the past seven years, the US economy has recovered and the US has not faced terror of the 9/11 class.  However, IS has been killing some American citizens in Syria, and Iraq and Afghanistan show clear failure of American diplomacy and strategies against Islamic terrorists.  China has become a economic power, though it is now placing a distance from the US, while China is aggressively expanding its military activities in the South China Sea.

Maybe ordinary Americans might like to have a new President who can redefine the American position in the world.  In this case, Hillary can take a sophisticated strategy based on her experiences, but Trump might do something wildly to make America strong again.  Sanders and Rubio do not look like so proven in this context.

But, the next US President should meet the condition that he or she is not directly from the American elite community or establishment, which means the new president is not a white male with higher academic or long elite public-life background and rich financial resources.

However, Jeb Bush might come back in the 2020 presidential election to compete with possible President Hillary Clinton.

Anyway, South Carolina and Nevada have chosen Trump and Hillary today as you all know in the world.

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Rev 2:21 And I gave her space to repent of her fornication; and she repented not.
Rev 2:22 Behold, I will cast her into a bed, and them that commit adultery with her into great tribulation, except they repent of their deeds.