Friday, February 15, 2019

"Jesus sat at meat in his house" - Trump's Bold Checking of Reckless Chinese Ambitions


North of Kyoto under Snow


Trump's Bold Checking of Reckless Chinese Ambitions

In September 11, 2001, the 9.11 terror occurred in the U.S.  With the collapse of the World Trade Center towers in New York, many Americas thought their view of the world changed forever.  And subsequently the War on Terror was launched.  Americans thought they were threaten by Islamic terrorists.  But around 2001, another threat to the US was progressing with China starting ever growing export to the US as the following figure shows.     

This trend did not stop even after the 2008 Financial Crisis.  Or, behind the Financial Crisis, that another threat to the US was further growing.  Chinese exports to the US were US$102.28 billions in 2001, US$337.77 billions in 2008, and US$505.6 billions in 2017.  While the US was fighting Islamic terrorists and fixing the Financial Crisis in these 18 years, China has almost constantly increased its exports to the US.  It is as if the largest beneficiary of the American crises in these 18 years were China but not Islamic terrorists.

The aspect of trade relationship between the US and China since 1985 can be seen in the following figure:
 
Since the Start of the War on Terror in 2001 through the Financial Crisis in 2008, Americans have been importing goods from China in ever increasing scales.

In comparison, Japan's imports from China are shown in the red line and its exports to China are shown in the blue line in the following figure:

Chinese exports to the Japan were the 600 billion yen (about US$6 billion) level in 2001, the 1,400 billion yen (about US$ 140 billion) level immediate before the 2008 Financial Crisis, and over the 1,600 billion yen (about US$ 160 billion) level in 2013.  Japan has been also imported Chinese goods in ever increasing scales although the imports from China drastically dropped in and after the 2008 Financial Crisis period.  In these years, Japan has been in deflation economy, which seems to be mostly ascribed to huge import of cheap Chinese goods.  Deflation is the most significant issue for Japan since 1990s.  But without stopping cheap Chinese goods, it was impossible to change the Japanese economic situation.  However, for Japanese companies to maintain profits, it is inevitable to import cheap Chinese goods and sold them to consumers in Japan to address competition in the Japanese market.

So, both the US and Japan, No.1 and No.2 economies in the world, have imported Chinese goods in the last 20 years in ever growing scales.   So, it is no wonder that Chinese GDP surpassed Japan's GDP in 2010.

But what does the US import from China?

Telephone sets and data processing machines are two major types of Chinese exports to the US.  They are not cheap commodities and sundry goods.  They represent strong needs for them in the US in the period of the Internet or Information Technologies.  But more than that, Chinese economy growth was made possible in the period of the Internet or Information Technologies.  Without use of personal computers, the Internet, mobile phones, and advanced software, China could not achieve such efficiency in developing its industries.

All through the 9/11 Terror in 2001 and the Financial Crisis in 2008, the IT technologies and the Internet have been growing not only in the US but also in China and other countries.  And the most beneficiary in this trend is China.

It is not in the world where industries before the era of the Internet and smart phones played major roles that China could develop and expand its economy.  The world in ever increasing needs for IT technologies, the Internet, smart phones, and advanced software such as AI, through the War on Terror and the Financial Crisis, has made it possible for China to achieve such economic success to the degree that China threatens the US.

However, basically,  IT technologies, the Internet, smart phones, and advanced software such as AI were first invented in the US.  And political, economic, and social situations of the US and Japan allowed to China to exponentially increase its exports.

So, it would cause a fundamental crisis for China, if it deviated from the global order and structure that have been established by the US after WWII, since China has not become a big economic power by its own capacity and unique merits.

The justification of Trump's being US President might only lie in his bold checking of reckless Chinese ambitions to pursue expansion of its influence based on huge trade surplus.


**** **** ****

Mar 2:15 And it came to pass, that, as Jesus sat at meat in his house, many publicans and sinners sat also together with Jesus and his disciples: for there were many, and they followed him.
Mar 2:16 And when the scribes and Pharisees saw him eat with publicans and sinners, they said unto his disciples, How is it that he eateth and drinketh with publicans and sinners?
Mar 2:17 When Jesus heard it, he saith unto them, They that are whole have no need of the physician, but they that are sick: I came not to call the righteous, but sinners to repentance.