(Tokyo Bay in the Rain)OIL PRICE DISCUSSIONS (2)
USA TODAY is offering a place for a free discussion on the oil price issue or devil's gasoline business.
One interesting or noteworthy argument is as follows:
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Gas at a premium
posted at 5/13/2008 12:38 PM EDT
For the government to release the strategic oil reserve to add only about 70,000 gallons of oil to the market per day is exactly the opposite of what should be done. China is importing twice as much oil per day as it uses in order to stockpile for the future when the price is higher and they would be able to even sell it back to the market.
We need to keep gasoline prices high in order to
CHANGE OUR DIET FROM OIL TO ELECTRICITY! IT IS TIME TO BECOME AUTARKIC IN ENERGY AND OTHER RAW MATERIALS!
In my 1997 thesis “The World-wide Deconomy 1999-2011” using four different mathematical algorithms, I calculated that the price of oil would reach an estimated $100 / 42 gallon barrel by 2007. This was in response to then Secretary of Energy Bill Richardson (current governor of New Mexico) who told the US public that “the price of oil would stabilize at $20/barrel by 1999 and remain there for a decade”. In my 2003 thesis, “The Rebirth of Technocracy – 2011-2016”, using two new algorithms, I recalculated that the price of oil would reach $100/bbl by 2007, $150/bbl by 2009 and $250/bbl by 2011. This was in response to then Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan’s comments to Congress and the US Public that “ the price of oil would stabilize at about $50/bbl for the foreseeable future.” I have no idea what algorithms the Department of Energy and Federal Reserve were using to calculate the predicted price of crude oil into the future, but their calculations do not appear to reflect reality.http://www.usatoday.com/community/forums.aspx?plckForumPage=ForumDiscussion&plckDiscussionId=Cat%3aec018ff9-2afb-4253-a3a7-c229861d7279Forum%3ac958a135-853a-4307-8bc4-2461fd04a968Discussion%3aa575de08-7911-476e-8acc-f0b3c50ae91d
In my 2003 thesis, I determined that the breaking point for the economy and the average consumer in the United States (and the world) would be when the price of oil reached approximately $175 / barrel. At this point, a drastic change in personal transportation would become a necessity. It appears now in 2008, that the breaking point may be closer to $125/ barrel.
If there is a current need for a drastic change in personal transportation, which I believe there is, we must provide incentives for the consumer to change their mode of personalized employment transportation especially in urban areas.
An example of a technocratic market economy in the area of autarky would be the economic encouragement for consumers to replace their gasoline powered work vehicles with electric powered personal cars. How would this work? Rather than Congress trying to force the large oil companies to put more profits into renewable resources, the government would offer to all employers in urban areas (100,000 people or more), a financial incentive program tied to the 5-year Treasury bonds or a new renewable resource bond issue, and the employer would establish a program with a financial institution where workers could procure an electrically powered vehicle through a payroll deduction plan at a guaranteed lower interest rate for 60-72 months. Indirectly through this program, the government would stimulate automobile industry to rapidly start building electric cars in a competitive fashion. Consumers would be also be encouraged to purchase an electric vehicle in this fashion through a federal income tax deduction. What would this do? 1) It would significantly reduce the consumption of foreign oil by 30% within 2 years and by as much as 55% within 3 years, 2) it would clean up the air in cities and significantly reduce the release of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, 3) stimulate the auto industry to change the technology of personalized transportation, 4) stimulate supporting industries such as chemical companies, battery companies, electrical companies etc., 5) reduce the financial burden on consumers so they have more money to save, buy food, clothing and housing and many other things.
So through technocratic autarky, we could stimulate the economy, stimulate competition, increase employment, decrease reliance on foreign raw materials, improve the trade balance to exports equal imports, improve the environment and reduce global carbon emissions and improve the individual citizen’s financial status.
Most importantly is instead of trying to force the oil companies to invest profits into renewable resources which do not directly benefit transportation or trying to tax the oil companies which would be passed on to the consumer, apply consumer incentives to encourage changing the way people transport themselves. As the oil companies realize less profit due to rapid drop in gasoline consumption as electric vehicles take people to and from work, they will have financial encouragement (forced) to diversify into more renewable resource development and management to remain in business with profits.
P.W. Shafer PhD
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Global warming is a fact; but human arrogance which has caused it is still predominant as people think they can deal with it by simply focusing on reduction on CO2 with a price tag.
The oil price surge is a problem; but human arrogance which has caused it is still evident in the claim that it should be addressed with other technology while adhering to a sinful principle that businesses should be allowed to seek for infinite profits if resulting in environmental destruction of the earth.
True discussions can be only decisively powerful when leaving figures, numbers, technologies, regulations, and business arrogance.
Yet, I hope that you will discuss these issues more with all your ability and talent, since it is you who will be judged by the God on the count of relying on so much on human wisdom but not the wisdom of God, since foolishness of God is yet far cleverer than wisdom of men.
(Have a good Sunday night, too!
http://www.fukuchan.ac/music/j-folk0/konyawaodorou.html )
*** Added in October 2011 ***
*** Added in November 2011 ***
Luk 6:28 Bless them that curse you, and pray for them which despitefully use you.
Luk 6:29 And unto him that smiteth thee on the one cheek offer also the other; and him that taketh away thy cloak forbid not to take thy coat also.